| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | L | Michigan | 17-34 | 1319.2 | -1.8 | 1317.4 | 2.9% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Idaho State | 32-22 | 1317.4 | +0.0 | 1317.4 | 25.9% |
| 4 | Sep 12 2025 | W | UCLA | 35-10 | 1317.4 | +67.4 | 1384.8 | 26.4% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | New Mexico State | 38-20 | 1384.8 | +18.1 | 1402.9 | 72.9% |
| 7 | Oct 3 2025 | L | San José State | 28-35 | 1402.9 | -46.3 | 1356.6 | 62.2% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Boise State | 25-41 | 1356.6 | -9.0 | 1347.6 | 14.0% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Nevada | 24-22 | 1347.6 | +11.3 | 1358.9 | 82.6% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Utah State | 33-14 | 1358.9 | +37.8 | 1396.7 | 47.6% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | UNLV | 40-35 | 1396.7 | +74.8 | 1471.5 | 15.7% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Colorado State | 20-17 | 1471.5 | +15.3 | 1486.8 | 76.9% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Air Force | 20-3 | 1486.8 | +33.1 | 1519.9 | 68.3% |
| 15 | Nov 28 2025 | W | San Diego State | 23-17 | 1519.9 | +34.0 | 1553.9 | 52.2% |
| 19 | Dec 26 2025 | L | Minnesota | 17-20 | 1553.9 | -32.1 | 1521.8 | 37.7% |